We’re days away from the 2025 Six Nations kicking off and the excitement is building in the rugby world (depending on who you support). With it being the last international stop before the Lions Tour of Australia, there will be plenty of eyes on Ireland, England, Scotland, and Wales with selections looming.

Maybe I’m overthinking this, but it feels like for the first time in a very long time the tournament is pretty open. 5 of the 6 teams look like, on their day, they could upset most (no prizes for guessing who I’m leaving out of the six) and I believe there are three genuine contenders for the championship. With the return of the tournament, I’m committing to bringing back the graded series following a year’s sabbatical, but there’s still a full weekend of fixtures to go before that. So, without further ado, let’s get into some predictions!

6^th: Wales

Contrary to possible assumed belief, it brings me absolutely no joy to talk about how terrible Wales have been as of late. I made a piece last autumn about how the WRU are world rugby’s lolcow and the Welsh national team were sleepwalking to 17 losses in a row if they weren’t careful. Fast forward a few months and it’s looking far more like a probability than possibility. I can’t say I was overly enamoured with the team announcement; in all my years of following Wales it is certainly a squad. I like that there’s a bit more experience coming back with Liam Williams, Taulupe Faletau, and Josh Adams, but this really does feel like a dropped ball for Warren Gatland with this selection. I’m not going to sit here and say who shouldn’t be in the team because that’s not fair and it’s not the players’ faults, but some of the emissions are staggering to me. I could make a list of players a mile long of who should’ve been included, but leaving out Jarrod Evans and Max Llewellyn are the standout two for me (seriously Warren what are you thinking?). It feels a bit more rounded than last year, and there’s no hangover from the Louis Rees-Zammit/NFL situation, but the rut of poor form the team is in is terrifying. 

And with that, I have Wales finishing bottom. I want to be wrong, I’m absolutely desperate to be wrong, but it’s the most likely scenario. Maybe they’ll scrape a win against Italy depending on how the France game goes or possibly England, but I’m not sure if I see it. The question will then likely turn back to Gatland and who should replace him if this is his curtain call. I don’t have the answer, and this is purely speculation, but keep in mind that Michael Cheika has a year-long rolling contract with Leicester Tigers which he hasn’t extended yet. I don’t have any insider knowledge and I’m putting two and two together to get five, I’m just saying it might be worth keeping an eye on.

5^th: Italy

Tough one. On their day, they can go blow for blow with the big teams in world rugby and this has potential to be their best ever tournament. The optimist in me wants to put them much higher than 5^th, but annoyingly my head says this is where they’ll finish. They aren’t the whipping boys anymore, and I’ve been singing their praises for years knowing that this squad could start playing some incredible rugby, they just needed that first win to kick off and have some glue to hold the squad together. They managed that with the win in Cardiff in 2022, and Kieran Crowley more than held the team together. Gonzalo Quesada has taken gil Azzurri from strength to strength during his short time in charge and has them playing an incredible fast-paced game but I just don’t think it’ll come together this time. It’s more down to the quality of other teams than Italy being bad because they’re not. I predict it coming down to incredibly frustrating single digit point or two score losses without a bad performance for 4 of the games, and a win against Wales in week 2.

It’s a team that excites me and one I’m eager to see play. Ange Cappuozzo is in fine form for Toulouse with 9 tries so far this season, including a hat trick against Toulon, and for me will be the orchestrator for the side. I’d also keep an eye on young Exeter star Ross Vintcent. The South African-born flanker has been a standout player in a fairly naff Chiefs team so far this season, and is in for a massive tournament. They had a fantastic run of it last year and were an inch away from beating France, but I’m just not sure that this time they’ll be able to turn those narrow losses into wins.

4^th: England

These last 12 months for England felt like one that the locusts have eaten, English rugby’s year of malaise so to speak. It’s just been… meh. There have been positives and certainly things to be encouraged by, but it’s the shortcomings that are talked about because us rugby fans can be a pessimistic bunch at times. It’s not been an absolutely terrible year for England, nowhere near as bad as it could’ve been, but it’s hardly been the best of times. This already feels like a do or die tournament for Steve Borthwick, he’s not really set England alight with world-beating rugby and the clock on his tenure as coach could be ticking rapidly. I’m still a believer in him, maybe because I’m a Leicester fan and I saw him manage it there, but things need to start moving into gear quick. The team has an incredibly high ceiling and as soon as it starts to click then they’ll be contenders for the Championship, but I don’t think it’ll be this year.

I’m a fan of the squad that’s been selected, even if I’m a bit gutted that we’ve probably seen the last of Dan Cole in an England shirt. Maro Itoje as captain is an absolutely fantastic call, not only for what he does during play but how he manages to get the players up and pumped out of it. The way how he celebrates every turnover and penalty from the scrum like a try might be unbearable for other supporters, but it gets the fans pumped up and it gives the squad that bit extra oomph. There are some big losses with Jack Van Poortvliet, George Furbank, and Imannuel Feyi-Waboso all injured, but it’s still a team packed with talent. I’m excited to see Joe Heyes and I’m so glad he’s getting the recognition he deserves on an international stage and pleased that Oscar Beard and Cadan Murley have both been called up. When it comes to the games itself, I feel they’ll beat Wales and Italy, and draw with Ireland. I know that predicting a draw is a weird one, and I know it’s in Dublin, but I just have this feeling that Ireland won’t win and I’m more inclined to say it’s a draw. 4^th is the most likely scenario for England, but 4^th and 3^rd can be interchangeable, which may be a bold call when you see who I think will finish there.

3^rd: Ireland

Come on! What’s a prediction piece without a bold prediction that will age terribly in six weeks’ time? I can’t just do boring, same-y picks that everyone and their dog will do, so why not spice it up a bit? I know this is bold given Ireland won the tournament last year, but I can see there being a bit of a fall off. You’d be stupid to argue that this is a team lacking quality, it’s a fantastic group of players and there is no doubt in my mind that the Lions squad in the summer will be made up mainly of them. You can argue at least seven Irish players will start against Australia in the first test, maybe eight, but for a couple of reasons far beyond their control I think the Boys in Green could struggle a little this time around.

The first big one is the fact that Andy Farrell won’t be there. Yes, they’ll keep Paul O’Connell as forwards coach and Simon Easterby is far from a bad temporary replacement, but it’s still a big loss. As well as that, the timing of the schedule could end up being tough. They’ll have to play England in the first game without Tom O’Toole because of suspension and Tadhg Furlong through injury. Then there’s the issue of having to play a France that could well be back to their best with the return of Antoine Dupont, and Scotland in Murrayfield (who, spoiler and foreshadowing alert, I think are the real deal). They arguably man-for-man have the best starting XV in the tournament, but the shaky depth in the front and second row, blindside, and on the wing rings some alarm bells. As I said earlier, I can see a draw with England, a win against Italy, a big win against Wales, and two close losses to Scotland and France. I could be completely wrong, but I find Ireland such a difficult team to assess and predict this year. Knowing my overthinking and prediction making, I may as well congratulate Ireland now on their eventual Grand Slam!

2^nd: Scotland

It’s their best chance at the title since 1999, and why wouldn’t it be? The journey this team has come on in the last decade or so is insane, and they’re starting to look like they’re at their best. It’s the strongest squad they’ve had since their last championship and have the quality to go all the way, but I think they fall just short. I have them winning the Triple Crown which will be a great achievement and a first one in 35 years, but I still can’t see past France. The hottest take is I have them beating Ireland, but hear me out. The Scots will be more than up for it, and it will be such a massive marker to put down so early in the tournament. Murrayfield will be an absolute fortress this year and can be a massive factor in beating Italy and Wales too. I do fancy them to beat England (again) just because I think the Scottish team is better overall, but they’ll fall agonisingly short in Paris because France have been there before.

But, and this is an enormous but, they will have to make sure that they are 1 million per cent on it and don’t slip up and get complacent. They can easily become the masters of their own downfall, and we have been here many times before. Aside from that not having Sione Tuipulotu could turn out to be major. Him and Huw Jones are as good a pairing at centre that you will find in international rugby today and it leaves a very noticeable gap. They take me back to the glory years as a young Welsh fan being blessed with Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies as our centre pairing, god what I’d do for them to be in this team now. In a way this Scotland team are terrifyingly close to becoming the France of about a decade ago where they definitely should be in the conversation for the title, but you just don’t know which one will show up. I digress, I’m putting a lot of faith in that Scotland will show up and live up to their potential, thus coming a very respectable second.

1^st: France

You knew it would be them. Look, I know this isn’t particularly interesting or bold, but I think this year all signs point to a French Grand Slam. When they’re at their best, they’re the best team in world rugby bar none, and I think they’re destined to get their second slam in four years. The return that’s grabbing all the attention is Antoine Dupont, and rightly so. Everything the man touches turns to gold, quite literally in the case of the French Olympics Sevens team, so expect him to come back firing. Another return that is going slightly under the radar but arguably even more important than Dupont is fly-half Romain Ntamack. Whenever he doesn’t play it shows, and France become easier to play against. With Ntamack out it becomes less of a challenge to neutralise the threat of Dupont, don’t get me wrong it’s still an enormous ask but it’s a bit easier. When Ntamack is back in the side however, France has that second world class creative outlet that makes the 9 and 10 so much more difficult, if not impossible, to contain.

France is in a modern golden age of rugby with world class established talent, experienced players, and exciting youngsters. They have the best club sides in the world alongside South Africa, and the Top 14 is arguably the best league on the planet. This incredible French team are pushed to the limit every week for their clubs playing against either each other or equally world class players. You just have to look at how Toulouse dismantled Leicester in the Champions Cup recently to see how strong a league it is and how great the teams are. They have their two strongest creative assets back and will be full of confidence after a strong Autumn with huge wins over New Zealand and Argentina. I just can’t see anyone stopping them, and it’s why I have them winning it all.